Nahili Samurai

The Turkmen Gambit

Russia is doing the same mistake over and over again, and is expecting a different result. In this game of energy, one must always respect the partners. Unfortunate comments by the Russian energy tzar, Sechin, are not something very new, these ideas are rooted deep within in our relations after 1991. Russia is still trying to rule, instead of pragmatic and objective co-operation approach.

And now we pledge gas for Nabucco. This is nothing new as well, just the continuation of our objective approach.

IMHO, as long as we develop and sell the natural gas, before the era of renewables comes blessingly into reality, it doesn’t emotionally matter who’s the buyer. Russia or Europe, it doesn’t matter, but the customers should be respectful and objective. This Gambit should serve as another reminder for Russia, the old days are over. Turkmenistan in line with Kazakhstan and Turkey is becoming increasingly influential in the region, and is ready to push forward to protect its national interests.

TAPI – how soon do we need it?

We have Russian, Iranian and Chinese pipelines. Unfortunately Nabucco is still not in the list.

Fortunately all three of API (Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) are in good terms with us. Moreover, Pakistan and India are still hungry for natural gas and Afghanistan can make transit money. If you ask me, we should sell, and we should sell SOONER.

The global trend is towards shale and renewable; wind, solar and hydro. All big fish predict slow transition, but I predict a fast transition. Renewable will grow exponentially like Google and soon suffocate the classic Yahoo/traditional energy.

Another new player is LNG, it’s becoming as liquid and as easy to sell as oil crude. Very soon it will be cheaper to buy spot-price LNG than build multi-billion pipelines. As we don’t have an exit to the world oceans (except the Volga-Don channel), it will be difficult for Turkmenistan to enter the LNG waters.

If you ask me, build the pipeline sooner…

Shale gas and Turkmenistan

Okay, let’s all calm down. What is shale gas?

Shale gas is natural gas produced from shale. Shale gas has become an increasingly more important source of natural gas in the United States over the past decade, and interest has spread to potential gas shales in Canada, Europe, Asia, and Australia.

Some analysts expect that shale gas will greatly expand worldwide energy supply. A study by the Baker Institute of Public Policy at Rice University concluded that increased shale gas production in the US and Canada could help prevent Russia and Persian Gulf countries from dictating higher prices for the gas it exports to European countries. The Obama administration in the US believes that increased shale gas development will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It’s all very nice and beautiful, however it takes time to learn technology and develop gas fields. After some time America’s shale gas revolution will definitely spread into Canada, Europe and Asia.

Demand and supply will add some pepper to this game. Companies and countries will run economics; is it cheaper to import gas from Turkmenistan, or is it cheaper to invest billions to produce gas from shale formations? It all takes time and considerations.
How much of the demand can be met by shale gas and how soon?
50% of demand? Then Turkmen gas is still in the game, aint it?

From the environmental point of view, there are concerns about water contamination, which coincides with global insufficient supply of drinking water. Environmental concerns will impact most decisions in Europe, which is densely populated.

The truth is; we all want miracles, but the real world works based on realities and economics. Only time will tell if we’re wrong about building East-West pipeline (which I think is a great project), there’s no need to assume that Ashgabat cannot run economics. Too frequently it was proven that Turkmenistan is right.

Who will be more prepared next time

Israel has advantage in using the best minds of former Soviet Union, especially when it comes to advanced science, telecommunications and defense technology.

It is the role of developing world to create opportunities for young scientists, to innovative institutions that will be linked to various industries, including defense industry.

The next phase of saving ourselves from constant violence of specific world powers, is – to be prepared…

Israel’s end

Everything under the sun has a beginning and an end. When you start killing people who were just trying to bring food to other people; then your end has neared. This ain’t no metaphysical talk, today I will talk psychology.

In 2005, some stupid cartoons united us against your products. Now we buy from East. In 2010 your actions might unite us against something bigger. At some point of time, the role of nationalism had to decrease, and we had to remember old roots, the faith that united us for centuries.

I admit that there’s a way to defeat humans, especially those lazy and greedy shadows, who have totally forgotten their past, and who they are. However, “fighting God”, Israel, is impossible. Let us see, history will show the results of your actions.

Turkmenistan wants multi-party system, are we ready?

If the leader says that we’re ready, then most probably we are. Officials have access to more data and can perform more accurate analysis.

From my humble part there is one concern only; we should closely follow how the new party develops, in order to protect it from any external influence.

On the positive side; most people in Turkmenistan welcome this development, as a step to a more democratic future. As more people get higher education, master/specialist degrees, open up to more cultures and more knowledge, it’s only natural that they will want a multi-party system.